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Tunisia’s Labor-Led Siliana Uprising Honors the Memory of Labor Leader Farhat Hached

Cross-posted from the Colorado Progressive Jewish News.

Siliana and the Farhat Hached Legacy

Farhat Hached.

Farhat Hached.

Sixty years ago on this date, December 5, 1952, Farhat Hached, legitimately considered the key founder and father of the independent Tunisian trade union movement, was assassinated by agents of French colonialism. But the movement that he was so instrumental in creating and shaping, the Union General des Travailleurs Tunisien (UGTT), remains vibrant, fighting for workers’ rights, fair wages and social justice today as it did in those now long gone, last dark and painful days of French colonial rule. Nationwide commemorative activities were planned to mark the occasion.

But it is not for nothing that 60 years later, through all of Tunisia’s years as an independent country, through the Bourguiba and Ben Ali’s years, that it has been impossible to snuff out the memory of Farhat Hached. He’s too much a part of his country’s history. Farhat Hached was the son of a fisherman from the Kerkennah islands, 12 miles off the coast of Sfax, a poor island chain, ‘the periphery of the periphery’. He made history. Sixty years after his death, he’s still making it.

There was no better way to celebrate Hached’s heritage than the way it was done in Siliana, Tunisia, a town ninety miles southwest of the capitol Tunis. There, for five days, classically militant Tunisian youth – those same folks whose righteous wrath overthrew the Ben Ali dictatorship two years ago – took to the streets with the local members of the UGTT. For five days tens of thousands of them stood strong in the streets of Siliana, facing down units of the Tunisian military sent by the Ennahda-led government to crush their moment. The military open fired with bird shot, wounding 200 and if the reports are accurate, permanently blinding at least 17 youth.

But when physical confrontation ended and the UGTT called off the demonstrations, it was the government, shaken to its core, that was forced to concede, and not the workers. A few days before the sixtieth anniversary of Hached’s assassination, and with the shadow of the self-immolated Sidi Bouzid youth Mohammed Bouazizi also haunting them, the three-party coalition transition Tunisian government blinked first, backed off and agreed to the UGTT demands that the district’s governor be sacked and that a state jobs program be implemented to address the nagging socio-economic crisis facing not only Siliana, but the whole country.

The labor-led Siliana uprising was more than just a spontaneous expression of anger and frustration. It was much more. It was a reminder that massive youth unemployment, low wages combined with classic ‘structural adjustment take-aways’ were among the key contributing factors to the revolt which brought down Ben Ali and forced him and his wife, Leila Trabelsi, to flee the country on January 14, 2011. It was a protest against the government’s dilly-dallying, its fixation with shifting Tunisian society in a more religious direction while coming up empty (or almost so) in efforts to address the country’s appalling poverty and unemployment. It was a protest against the social polarization between rich and poor, between the urban centers and the more rural areas, which again has hardly been addressed since Ben Ali fled the country. At Siliana, the Ennahda-led transition government, one that has continued in the tradition of the neoliberal economic policies of the Ben Ali administration in its main lines, took a sharp blow.

And make no mistake – Siliana was a warning to the transition government – nothing less: get serious about dealing with the country’s genuine problems, or face the consequences – that, failing that ‘the people’ will sweep you from power as they did Ben Ali. The message was unambiguous: time to get back to the basics – to resolving the socioeconomic crisis, the crisis in democracy which had triggered the 2010-2011 social explosion in the first place. Siliana sent another message to the Tunisia’s government: that the UGTT, as it was when Farhat Hached was using his extraordinary talent as a labor organizer, remains a force with which to be reckoned.

Farhat Hached, watching all this, from his vantage point above, must be smiling. Looking down from above, he raises his fist in solidarity with the youth and trade unionists of Silliana.

La Main Rouge Assassinates Farhat Hached

On December 5, 1952, on the road to Rades, Farhad Hached was gunned down by a French para-military hit squad called La Main Rouge (The Red Hand) in an operation which all signs suggest was run by the French résident général, Jean de Hautecloque, a hard-line colonial administrator sent to Tunisia to break the back of the growing pro-independence movement. The murder took place in two stages. First, a car pulled up alongside of Hached’s; two gunmen on the passenger side opened fire, severely wounding him and drove off. Hached was still able to get out of his car alive. But then a second car stopped; gunmen got out and finished Hached off with bullets to the brain. Hached left a devastated 22-year-old wife and four young children: the oldest Nour-eddine, who would become Tunisia’s ambassador to the United States and Japan, was eight years old; his youngest Samira, who would never know her father, only eight months old.

According to an account in a recently published biography of Mahmoud El Materi, one of the founders of Tunisia’s Neo-Destour – ‘New Constitutional’ Party, (Mahmoud El Materi: Pionnier de la Tunisie Moderne by Anissa El Materi Hached. Sud Editions, Tunis: 2011), Hached’s assassination provoked angry demonstrations far and wide throughout the Arab World and Europe at the time. Trade unionists in Casablanca, in a number of Algerian cities and elsewhere throughout the world demonstrated for over a week following the assassination. A street in Casablanca bears his name as do numerous schools, hospitals and streets throughout Tunisia. Other ‘Red Hand’ assassinations of Tunisian nationalist leaders followed: Hedi Chaker, head of the Neo-Destourian Party in Sfax was also killed as was Chadly Kastalli, vice president of the Tunis Municipality and close to the pro-nationalist Moncef Bey. But none of these assassinations achieved their goal of derailing the nationalist movement and utterly destroying the Union General des Travailleurs Tunisiens – the UGTT as it was already commonly referred to and still is today. To the contrary, in the aftermath of Hached’s death, the movement for national independence from French colonial domination stiffened and would lead a mere four years later to Tunisian independence, in which Hached himself had been a major player.

The Man From Kerkennah

Sixty years after his murder, Farhat Hached remains nothing short of a much-loved national Tunisian hero of the anti-colonial movement. Hached was one of the least factional figures of his day during a period when factionalism was rife. His eyes were always ‘on the prize’ – independence from France, although he never lived to see the end of the French Protectorate in Tunisia that he helped to discredit and ultimately defeat. While time – and historical revelations – have tended to puncture the halos atop the heads of many of the country’s nationalist icons, Hached’s contribution and reputation remain intact. Hached’s family along with several French human rights groups are suing the French government both for an apology and for the release of classified government documents related to the case.

Farhad Hached was born on Kerkennah, a small chain of fishing village islands off the coast of Sfax in 1914. In 1929, forced to leave school at the age of 15 and seek employment because of his father’s death, Hached found work in Sousse, some miles up the coast halfway between Sfax and Tunis with la Société du transport du Sahel (the Sahel Transportation Company) as a mail courier (convoyeur). Almost immediately some of his other talents surfaced. He wasted no time in organizing a union of transport workers, which affiliated with the France-based Confederation Generale du Travail (CGT). Hached’s union activities continued and soon he became active beyond the transport workers and involved in regional and national union organizing drives, for which, eventually in 1939 he was fired.

Difficult years followed during World War II, when Tunisia was ruled by Vichy French and temporarily occupied by the Nazis until British and US armies liberated it in May of 1943. After the liberation, Hached was rehired by the Free French colonial government to direct its Public Works Department in the Sfax region. He immediately went back to union organizing, and now, employed, took the hand of a Kerkennah cousin, Emma Hached. Soon thereafter, Hached broke with the CGT for which he had organized for 15 years. He, and other Tunisian trade unionists were critical of the positions taken within the French union by socialists and communists who ignored – and did not support – the Tunisian call for independence from France. Now the Tunisian trade union movement would be then and forever, standing on its own Tunisian feet, finding its own way.

The split was significant as it marks the beginning of an independent Tunisian trade union movement with its own leadership and a cadre split off from the colonial center in Paris. Hached’s experience, having ‘grown up’ politically and as a union organizer within the CGT (as either a member or supporter of the French Communist Party – I do not know the exact details here) was by no means unique. Another North African, whose evolution paralleled Hached’s is the Algerian trade unionist and anti-colonial militant Messali Hadj.

Soon after the split from the CGT, Hached, in concert with other Tunisian trade unionists began the process of bringing together an independent Tunisian national trade union movement. His first effort was to create what was referred to as the Confederation of Free Trade Unions of the South – meaning the south of Tunisia (l’union des syndicats libres du Sud) based upon a three point program: 1. Social Justice 2. Equality between Tunisian and French workers (working in Tunisia) and 3. Support for national independence and an end to French colonial rule. Not long afterwards, he organized, or was involved in organizing, a similar federation in the north of the country which came together in Tunis and shortly thereafter, logically, the two federations merged, in 1946, to form the General Union of Tunisian Workers (l’union generale tunisienne de travail – UGTT).

Hached becomes secretary general of the UGTT at the age of 30

In 1947, at the tender age of 30, Farhat Hached was unanimously elected as secretary general of Tunisia’s independent trade union movement. From the outset, Hached directed the energies of the UGTT ending colonialism and winning independence for Tunisia. Autonomous of French influence and completely independent politically, the trade union movement became one of the main bases for support for the broader nationalist movement led by Habib Bourguiba and his pro-independence Neo-Destour Party. The strikes, demonstrations and agitation for independence from 1946 onward intensified as did the calls by the UGTT to improve the standard of living of Tunisian workers under colonial conditions with all the indignities involved.

As a result of this focused, controlled militant activity, the mood of the country as a whole radicalized. Then in 1949, the UGTT became the Tunisian branch of the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU), which gave Hached international connections and influence far beyond Tunisia’s borders, including in the United States and Western Europe. At the time there were two main international trade union federations. Besides the ICFTU there existed the Moscow-leaning World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU). During much of the Cold War the two confederations were in competition with each other, splitting the international working class movement down the middle and weakening the impact of both.

In a few short years Hached had become an international personality, and as such was able to present the cause of Tunisian independence internationally. That the radical Hached would choose to lead the Tunisian trade union movement into the U.S.-dominated ICFTU rather than the WFTU is interesting. Part of his reasoning most probably was that he wanted to steer the Tunisian trade unions away from the WFTU, where the CGT retained considerable influence and in so doing limiting the influence of French colonialism on the Tunisian labor movement. Along similar lines, the leadership of the Tunisian nationalist movement, and Habib Bourguiba in particular, tried to develop good relations with the United States, both because the Tunisians understood that the United States was the emerging global hegemonic power that could nudge the French to grant Tunisia independence. They were right about that.

Five years later – and a year before he was assassinated – Hached was able to report to a national congress of the UGTT, the progress the movement had made which included:

• The UGTT had grown to embrace 120,000 workers throughout the country.

• It had led an organized and disciplined grass roots movement against the French Occupation.

• The Union had won for Tunisian society as a whole a number of civil rights and constitutional guarantees from the French colonial administration.

• The UGTT had achieved international recognition by its adhesion to the ICFTU of which Hached had been elected to its executive board.

• The creation of the UGTT had encouraged, with Hached’s personal participation, other North African nations under colonial domination (Morocco and Algeria under French domination, Libya ruled by the Italians) to create their own trade union movements independent of their colonial overseers.

• The UGTT had developed its own economic and social vision, civil rights goals that were embraced by the nationalist movement that could provide direction to the nation after independence.

The French Repress the Tunisian Independence Movement

In 1952, hoping to gain a quick independence, the Tunisian national movement opened negotiations with the French government. The negotiations failed and were almost immediately followed by a harsh wave of repression against the movement. The French colonial government in Tunis engaged in a full-scale press to break the back of the independence movement in one fell swoop. Most of the leadership of the independence movement, including Habib Bourguiba, were arrested. A curfew was imposed; all political activity was banned; mass arrests were carried out by the French Foreign Legion.

It was at this moment of full crisis, with the nationalist movement reeling from the repression, that the UGTT stepped forward, picked up the pieces and assumed the leadership of both the political and armed resistance (there was some) against the French authorities. In so doing, it was the trade union movement in general, and its talented leader Farhat Hached that saved the independence movement from collapse. In the face of the wave of repression, and French Colonialism could, when it felt obliged, reveal its fangs in the nastiest of fashions, it was Tunisian trade unionists – its working class – that stood fast, held their ground and continued the struggle for independence as they say ‘on all fronts’.

And for that they paid a price, a terrible price, one hardly acknowledged outside the country. 20,000 trade unionists were arrested and placed in prison and concentration camps, knowing they would face what the French in North Africa excelled at: abuse, torture of an exceedingly refined kind, possible death. Of the 20,000 arrested, 9 were condemned to death and executed, 12 condemned to life imprisonment of forced labor, with many others receiving heavy jail sentences. In protest demonstrations hundreds were killed and wounded.

In a letter that Hached wrote just before his own assassination to secretary general Oldenbroek of the ICFTU, the Tunisia trade union leader comments, “Let us add (to the repression noted above) the 50 assassination attempts against Tunisian militants organized by Le Main Rouge (The Red Hand), French colonial paramilitary terrorist group. ” Others, when released from concentration camps (imagine – only seven years after the defeat of Hitler the French were establishing concentration camps in Tunisia!) were denied employment.

The resistance largely organized by Hached and the UGTT in that crucial year of 1952, in many ways broke the back of French colonialism and set the stage for talks between France and the Tunisian national movement that would, four short years later, result in independence, an independence that Farhat Hached never lived to see but to which he made a considerable contribution. His heritage lives on, in his children and in all Tunisians.

This Week in OtherWords: Fiscal Swindle Special Edition

This week, OtherWords unpacks the fiscal challenges furrowing the brows of our lawmakers and just about every Obama administration official. Columnist Sam Pizzigati highlights the way billionaire Peter Peterson bankrolled the misleading portrayal of Social Security cuts as the only way to balance the budget. The Green Party’s Jill Stein points out that the biggest problem we’re facing is the “climate cliff” and that any “grand bargain” should do something to stop global warming. I explain that at least $881 billion in creative revenue-raisers and spending cuts belong on the table. If you’d like to check out this deficit-reduction proposal, please download the new report that the Institute for Policy Studies is releasing today.

Be sure to visit our blog, where I recently posted more highlights from the avalanche of fan mail that followed Donald Kaul’s heart attack. We’re also running bonus pieces from Jim Hightower there — such as his recent take on Texan secessionists. And, consider subscribing to our weekly newsletter if you haven’t signed up yet.

  1. Mother Nature Belongs at the Bargaining Table / Jill Stein
    Throwing the nation over the climate cliff will make our current fiscal challenges look like a minor bump in the road.
  2. Snake-Oil Deficit Savings / Ryan Alexander
    Like things you spot in your side-view mirror, many of the budget numbers flitting around the debt talks are larger than they appear.
  3. The Fiscal Hoax / Peter Hart
    Don’t believe the cliff hype.
  4. For Pete’s Sake, What’s Happened to Our Democracy? / Sam Pizzigati
    One billionaire has the wherewithal to totally redirect America’s political discourse.
  5. Dodging the Fiscal Swindle / Emily Schwartz Greco
    With a little creativity, we can easily balance the budget without cutting Social Security.
  6. Solving the Twinkie Murder Case / Jim Hightower
    Equity hucksters plundered the company to feather their own nests.
  7. The Answer Is Blowing in the Wind / William A. Collins
    Do we all have to drown in rising seas or broil in epic droughts before we decide it’s time to switch to renewable energy?
  8. Highway Robbery / Khalil Bendib (Cartoon)
Highway Robbery, an OtherWords cartoon by Khalil Bendib

Highway Robbery, an OtherWords cartoon by Khalil Bendib

The Secessionist Tempest in Texas

Once again, there’s a tempest brewing in the national tea pot. We’re talking secession.

Well, some of us are. Actually, very few are — and some of them aren’t too tightly wrapped.

Dave77459/Flickr

Dave77459/Flickr

There’s now a secession drive in a mess of red states, but it started right here in my crazy state of Texas, when someone identifying himself only as ”Micah H” posted a petition on the White House website shortly after President Barack Obama’s re-election. Expressing exasperation with Obama’s policies, Micah demanded that we Texans be allowed to decamp from the Union and become our own, separate nation.

Bam! Micah’s petition exploded in the blogosphere, drawing raucous applause and huzzahs. Naturally, most of the cheering came from out-of-staters, delighted with the thought that Texas and its notoriously nutty, right-wing political leaders might leave.

In case that nuttiness factor was in doubt, a GOP official in Southeast Texas rushed out to demonstrate the intellectual depth of the secessionist sentiment by militantly declaring: ”We must contest every single inch of ground and delay the baby-murdering, tax-raising socialists at every opportunity. In due time,” he added, ”the maggots will have eaten every morsel of flesh off the rotting corpse of the Republic, and therein lies our opportunity.”

By ”maggots,” he meant Obama supporters, but I guess you knew that.

Many in the national media have expressed shock and alarm that Micah’s online petition has drawn some 118,000 digital signatures. But, get a grip — let’s remember that there are more than 26 million Texans, including 3.5 million Obama voters. So, sorry America, but Texas isn’t going anywhere. And, even if it did, Austin has already filed a counter-petition to then secede from Texas and operate as its own state.

Jim Hightower is a radio commentator, writer, and public speaker. He’s also editor of the populist newsletter, The Hightower Lowdown. Distributed via OtherWords (OtherWords.org)

Burma’s Buddhists Determined to De-romanticize Buddhism for West

Monks with gunsDoes any religion in the world have a cleaner rep than Buddhism? With much of its efforts devoted to helping one realizing the divinity within him or her, it’s disinclined to repressive morality or proselytizing. More to the point, much less violence is committed in its name than that of the other great religions. The operative word is “less.”

For instance, Sinhala Buddhists in Sri Lanka committed violence against Christians and Tamils. Even worse, during World War II, the Buddhist establishment — even Zen — cooperated, for the most part, with the militaristic Japanese regime. For more, read Buddhist Warfare (Oxford University Press, 2010) by Michael Jerryson and Mark Juergensmeyer.

Recently Burmese Buddhists — incited by monks, no less — have been conducting violent attacks against the Muslim Rohingyas with whom they share the Rakhine district, which borders Sri Lanka, from where the latter emigrate. Robert Fuller reports for the New York Times.

The Buddhist monastery on the edge of this seaside town is a picture of tranquillity, with novice monks in saffron robes finding shade under a towering tree and their teacher, U Nyarna, greeting a visitor in a sunlit prayer room.

But in these placid surroundings Mr. Nyarna’s message is discordant, and a far cry from the Buddhist precept of avoiding harm to living creatures. Unprompted, Mr. Nyarna launches into a rant against Muslims, calling them invaders, unwanted guests and “vipers in our laps.”

“According to Buddhist teachings we should not kill,” Mr. Nyarna said. “But when we feel threatened we cannot be saints.”

As if, Mr. Nyarna, there isn’t a world of difference between simply not being a saint and advocating ethnic cleansing. Earlier this month, at Reuters, Jason Szep and Andrew R.C. Marshall detailed some of the violence.

Tuesday [October 22] began with a massacre. … By 7 a.m. … hundreds of Rakhine arrived on boats to surround [the village of] Yin Thei, said a resident contacted by telephone. By late afternoon, the Muslim villagers were fending off waves of attacks. The resident said children, including two of his young cousins, were killed by sword-wielding Rakhines. Most houses were burned down. … A Yin Thei villager telephoned Musi Dula’s neighbours and said police were shooting at them. Another farmer nervously told Reuters how he watched from afar as police opened fire from the village’s western edge, also at about 5 p.m.

The official death toll is five Rakhines and 51 Muslims killed at Yin Thei, including 21 Muslim women, said a senior police officer in Naypyitaw, the new capital of Myanmar. He denied security forces opened fire or abetted the mobs. … As Yin Thei burned, the last of nearly 4,000 Rohingya Muslims were fleeing the large port town of Pauktaw, in a dramatic exodus by sea that had begun five days earlier.

Returning to the Times article, Fuller writes, “the country’s leading liberal voice and defender of the downtrodden, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, has been circumspect in her comments about the violence.” For their part, Szep and Marshall write that Suu Kyi’s “studied neutrality has failed to defuse tensions and risks undermining her image as a unifying moral force. Suu Kyi, a devout Buddhist, says she refuses to take sides.” [Emphasis added.]

Besides that she’s a Buddhist, how does she justify her silence? Seasoned Burma watcher and activist Roland Watson speculates. In April of this year he wrote:

It is difficult to fathom her actions, but a number of explanations are possible, including: She didn’t know how bad the Tatmadaw [Burma’s army] was treating the ethnic groups; … she censored herself; she thinks the problems that the ethnic nationalities have are their own fault (as many Burmans [the majority ethnic group] believe) … or, she noticed that since the international community ignored the atrocities it was safe for her to do so as well. (Of note, the United States, her close advisor, for two decades only backed her and refused to acknowledge the regime’s war crimes.)

During his recent visit, writes Fuller, President Obama at least made a nod to violence against the Rohingyas.

Mr. Obama spent a considerable portion of a speech at Yangon University focusing on the importance of diversity, singling out the “danger” of the Rakhine situation and telling his audience “there is no excuse for violence against innocent people.”

But (Fuller again), like Suu Kyi, Burma’s President Thein Sein keeps the issue at arms length.

… President Thein Sein told a visiting delegation from the United Nations in July that only Muslims who have been in the country for at least three generations would be allowed citizenship. The rest were a “threat to the peace of the nation,” he said, and would be put in camps and sent abroad. The United Nations rejected the idea, saying that it was not in the business of creating refugees.

Diplomats say that Mr. Thein Sein has retreated from that position and is now talking about resettling displaced Muslim populations inside the country. He sent a letter to the United Nations just before Mr. Obama’s visit saying that once passions cooled he would “address contentious political dimensions, ranging from resettlement of displaced populations to granting of citizenship.” But he offered no details or time frame.

Let’s return to Mr. Nyarna, who has a talent for putting his foot in his mouth, who said

… many Muslims do not “practice human morals” and should be sent to Muslim countries to be among “their own kind.”

Clearly, even some Buddhists need a refresher course in “human morals.”

The U.S. and Central & South Asia: Four More Years

Over the next four years the U.S. will face a number of foreign policy issues, most of them regional, some of them global. Conn Hallinan has been outlining and analyzing them. His first two reports covered the Middle East and Africa.

From the ice-bound passes of the Hindu Kush to the blazing heat of the Karakum Desert, Central Asia is a sub-continent steeped in illusion. For more than two millennia conquerors have been lured by the mirage that it is a gateway to immense wealth: China to the east, India to the south, Persia to the west, and to the north, the riches of the Caspian basin. Greeks, Persians, Arabs, Mongols, British, and Soviets have all come and gone, leaving behind little more than forgotten graveyards and the detritus of war.

Americans and our NATO allies are next.

It is a cliché that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires, but a cliché doesn’t mean something is not true, just that it is repeated over and over again until the phrase becomes numbing. It is a tragedy that the US was “numb” to that particular platitude, although we have company. In the past 175 years England has invaded Afghanistan four times.

Our 2001 invasion was itself built on a myth—that the Taliban had attacked the US on 9/11 was fabricated to lay the groundwork for the invasion of Iraq 17 months later. That both invasions turned into disasters is hardly surprising. Rudyard Kipling and TE Lawrence predicted those outcomes more than a 100 years ago.

Most of all, the war has been a calamity for the Afghan people. The country has staggered through more than 30 years of war. According to a recent UN survey, conditions for Afghans in the southern part of the country are desperate. Some one-third of the area’s young children—one million under the age of five—are acutely malnourished. “What’s shocking is that this is really high by global standards,” Michael Keating, deputy head of the UN mission to Afghanistan, told the Guardian (UK). “This is the kind of malnutrition you associate with Africa, and some of the most deprived parts of the world, not with an area that has received so much international attention and assistance.”

The area in question embraces Kandahar and Helmand, the two provinces targeted by Washington’s 2009 troop surge. That the provinces have widespread malnutrition and are still deeply restive—both are among the most dangerous areas in the country—is a commentary on the futility of the entire endeavor.

The question is, what now? How the White House answers that will go a long way toward determining whether Afghanistan can begin to extricate itself from its long, national nightmare, or once again collapse into civil war that could destabilize the entire region.

There are a couple of truths the White House will need to absorb.

First, there can be no “residual” force left in the country. Right now the Obama administration is trying to negotiate a status force agreement that will allow it to keep anywhere from 6,000 to 15,000 troops in the country to train the Afghan army and pursue al-Qaeda. Such an agreement would exempt US forces from local laws, and is a non-starter for Afghans from the get go. The Taliban and their allies—in particular the highly effective and quite lethal group, the Haqqanis—will not allow it, and insisting that US troops remain in the country will guarantee the war continues. If there is one truth in Afghanistan, it is that the locals don’t cotton to outsiders.

Nor are the regional neighbors very enthusiastic about having the American military in residence next door. Since those neighbors—specifically Iran, China, Pakistan and Russia—will be central to any final settlement, one does not want to annoy them. It doesn’t take much effort to derail a peace process in Afghanistan.

As for al-Qaeda, it doesn’t exist in Afghanistan, and it is even a specter of its former self in Pakistan. In any case, the Taliban and its allies are focused on local issues, not worldwide jihad, and pose no threat to the US or NATO. Indeed, way back in 2007, Mullah Omar, leader of the Afghan Taliban, pledged that the organization would not interfere in the affairs of any other country.

The White House can get the ball rolling by finally closing down Guantanamo and releasing its Taliban prisoners. Pakistan has already started its prisoner release. Washington must also stop its aggressive use of drones and Special Forces to pursue Taliban leaders. These so-called “night raids” and drone assassinations are not only provocative, but make any final agreement more difficult to negotiate. The US has already decapitated much of Taliban’s mid-level leadership, which, in turn, has atomized the organization into scores of local power centers. In fact, that decentralization may make reaching a final agreement much more difficult, because no single person or group of people will be empowered to negotiate for local Taliban affiliates.

In the long run the war will most likely be resolved the way most things end in Afghanistan: in a compromise. For all their war-like reputation, Afghans really excel in the art of the deal. The Taliban will be part of the government, but all the scare talk about Islamic extremists sweeping into power is exaggerated. The Taliban are mostly based in the Pashtun-dominated south and east, and they will remain the biggest players in Helmand, Kandahar and Paktika provinces. But Pashtuns only make up a plurality in the country—about 42 percent—and will have to compromise with the other major ethnic groups, the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Even when the Taliban ruled the country it never succeeded in conquering northern Afghanistan, and it has less support today than it did then.

One major danger comes from US support for local militias that do nothing to control the Taliban, but are quite successful at building up provincial warlords and protecting the opium trade (harvests increased 18 percent over a year ago). The Soviets followed exactly the same path, one that eventually led to the devastating 1992-96 civil war.

In short, the US needs to get out, and as quickly as possible. Its NATO allies have already boarded that train—the French are leaving a year early, the Dutch are gone, and the Brits are bunkered down—and prolonging the war is more likely to end in a debacle than any outcome favored by Washington. It is not our country, we don’t get to determine its history. That is a lesson we should have learned in Vietnam, but apparently did not.

The future of Afghanistan is linked to Pakistan, where current US policy is in shambles. A recent poll found that 74 percent of Pakistanis considered Washington an enemy. Many attribute those figures to the deeply unpopular American drone war that has killed scores of civilians. The drones have definitely made a bad situation worse, but the dispute goes deeper than missile-toting Predators and Reapers. Pakistan is legitimately worried about its traditional opponent in the region, India, and Islamabad views Afghanistan as part of its “strategic depth”—a place to which to retreat in case of an attack by the much stronger Indian Army. Given that Pakistan has lost four wars with its southern neighbor, paranoia about the outcome of a fifth is understandable.

Instead of showing sensitivity to this concern, Washington has encouraged India to invest in Afghanistan, which it has done to the tune of over $2 billion. India even has paramilitary forces deployed in southern Afghanistan. Further, the Obama administration has taken Kashmir off the table, in spite of the fact that, in the run-up to the 2008 elections, Obama promised to seek a solution to the long-running conflict. Dropping Kashmir was a quid pro quo for a growing alliance between New Delhi and Washington aimed at containing an up and coming China.

But Kashmir is far too dangerous to play the role of a regional pawn. India and Pakistan came very close to a nuclear war over the area in the 1999 Kargil incident, and both countries are currently accelerating their nuclear weapons programs. Pakistani and Indian military leaders have been distressingly casual about the possibility of a nuclear war between the two countries. Rather than actively discouraging a nuclear arms race, Washington has made it easier for New Delhi to obtain fuel for its nuclear weapons programs, in spite of the fact that India refuses—along with Pakistan—to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As with agreeing to mute concerns over Kashmir, the US’s waver of the NNPT is part of Washington’s campaign to woo India into an alliance against China. A nuclear exchange between the two South Asian countries would not only be a regional catastrophe, but would have a worldwide impact.

Independent of the dangers Kashmir poses for the region and the world, its people should have the right to determine their own future, be it joining Pakistan, India, or choosing the path of independence. A UN-sponsored referendum would seem the obvious way to let Kashmir’s people take control of their own destiny.

For starters, however, the US should demand that New Delhi accept a 2004 Indian government commission’s recommendation to repeal the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which Human Rights Watch calls “a tool of state abuse, oppression and discrimination.” The Special Powers Act was first created to control Catholics in Northern Ireland and then applied across Britain’s colonial empire. It is used today by Israel in the Occupied Territories and India in Kashmir. It allows for arrests without warrants, indefinite detainments, torture, and routine extra-judicial killings.

Washington’s fixation with lining up allies against China has also seen the US cut corners on human rights issues in Sri Lanka, Burma, and Indonesia. But recreating a version of the old Cold War alliance system in the region is hardly in the interests of Central and South Asians—or Americans, for that matter. India and Pakistan do not need more planes, bombs and tanks. They need modernized transport systems, enhanced educational opportunities, and improved public health. The same can be said for Americans.

There was a time when countries in Central and South Asia were responsible for much of world’s wealth and productive capacity. In 1750, India produced 24.5 percent of the world’s manufactured goods. England, in contrast, produced 1.9 percent. By 1850, the world had turned upside down, as colonialism turned—or to use the anthropologist Clifford Geertz’s term, “de-evolved”—India from a dynamic world leader to an economic satrap of London. The region is emerging from its long, colonial nightmare, and it does not need—indeed, cannot afford—to be drawn into alliances designed half a world away. It is time to bring the 21st century’s version of “the Great Game” to an end.

For more of Conn Hallinan’s essays visit Dispatches From the Edge. Meanwhile, his novels about the ancient Romans can be found at The Middle Empire Series.

At Climate Summit, It’s Economy First, Then Survival

The 2012 UN climate negotiations are not expected to be a breakthrough moment in solving the unfolding ecological crisis, but these talks will set the course for a future deal that countries have agreed will enter into force by 2020.

What’s at stake is more than a little overwhelming.

Australia climate protest

Global warming has to be kept to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures if we want to avert climate disaster. Scientists say that means we can send 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Meanwhile fossil fuel companies are planning to burn enough oil, coal and gas to release 2,795 gigatons.

And the impacts of a warming planet are already hitting home. Because of sea level rise the island nation of Kiribati in the Pacific Ocean is in negotiations to resettle its entire population in Fiji. And in the United States we’ve just experienced a summer of record-busting heat waves followed by a super-storm the likes of which meteorologists have literally never before seen.

From where I sit in Doha, however, any agreement to avoid predicted extremes in weather, economic disruption and loss of life that will accompany global warming looks a long way off.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — the experts group that provides the climate convention with the latest science — global greenhouse gas emissions would have to peak and start coming down by 2015. That’s right — in three years. Then, by 2050, the nations of the world would need to halve their overall climate pollution.

For the United States that translates into something like a 50 percent reduction by 2020 and deeper than 80 percent cuts by 2050 — a quasi-political calculation based on our responsibility as far and away the greatest contributor to climate change and one of the economies most capable of adapting.

Delivering serious emissions cuts won’t be easy for any country. Re-orienting a nation’s infrastructure to be climate smart — from energy to food to manufacturing to transportation — won’t be cheap.

Not surprisingly, no country wants to be the only one — or one of only a few — that is obliged to overhaul its entire economy to be low-carbon and climate resilient. It would put them at a distinct competitive disadvantage, at least at first (of course, every dollar spent on prevention saves three in disaster cleanup later).

And so the two largest economies and biggest polluters on the planet — the United States and China — have somewhat cleverly staked out positions that set them on the dangerous path of Mutually Assured Inaction. Neither of them will act on climate until the other does — but neither of them really wants to anyway.

The U.S. climate team said in no uncertain terms before leaving Washington DC for Doha that a second Obama term doesn’t translate into a shift away from blocking a climate deal that big countries like China are not legally bound by.

Lead negotiator Jonathon Pershing has repeatedly insisted that he can’t bring home a deal he can’t sell to Congress — and unfortunately Congress is still in the pocket of polluters (look no further for evidence than a recent letter to President Obama from 18 Senators who accepted more than $11 million from dirty energy companies urging him to approve the Keystone XL pipeline and unlock the Canadian tar sands).

At the end of the first week of negotiations, with a fair and effective climate deal looking out of reach, it’s hard to see how developing countries — or civil society — can compel the industrial world to take bold action and live up to their responsibilities.

Janet Redman provides live updates from the UN Climate Summit, Doha

UPDATE Friday, November 30, 2012, 11:30 AM ET:

Janet Redman, Co-Director of the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network, will be at the UN Climate Summit in Doha, Qatar, providing live updates from the conference and advocating for innovatice sources of finance – such as a “Robin Hood” tax on financial transactions – to fill the Green Climate Fund. She’s just spent her first day at the summit,

Redman is calling for the United States to take bold action at the UN climate summit. Faced with extreme weather, environmental instability and a growing sense of economic vulnerability, Americans rejected inequality and climate denialism in the voting booth, she says. Now, they are calling on newly re-elected President Barack Obama to take bold action to stop climate disruption in Doha, Qatar, at the 18th Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

“We recognize there are constraints on the president – in no small part from Congress – but the electorate wants action on climate change before Superstorm Sandy becomes business as usual.” Redman added, “There are measures we can take now. We can join European countries and agree to tax financial transactions, which could raise hundreds of billions of dollars for climate programs and other public goods. And we can promote the Green Climate Fund as the main channel for public finance to support low-carbon and climate resilient sustainable development priorities of countries and communities most impacted by climate change.”

While some at the center of Obama’s climate team warn that a second term will not bring a new approach to the administration’s foreign policy on climate, Redman asserts that, “re-election is a mandate for the U.S. to be a constructive player that supports equitable action on climate. That means the U.S. has to take responsibility for its historical contribution to global warming by committing to deeper pollution cuts and providing support for poorer countries to respond to climate change. It’s time to hold Obama’s feet to the fire.”

UN Climate Summit protests - Janet Redman, IPS, will be blogging and providing updates from the summit.

Janet will be tweeting @Janet_IPS and blogging at http://www.ips-dc.org/ and will be available for interview from the climate summit in Doha.

Climate Protest Rainbow frame

Hamas Helped, Israel Handicapped by Threats to Their Respective Publics

On Wednesday November 21, under an Egypt-brokered deal, Palestinians and Israelis agreed to end all hostilities against each other after eight days of relentless Israeli attacks on the coastal enclave. Israel also agreed to open all crossings and facilitate the movement of people and goods in and out of the Gaza Strip. But it did not accept a proposal to lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Over 160 Palestinians, mostly women and children, were killed and about 1,200 others were injured in over 1,500 Israeli attacks on Gaza that were carried out during the eight-day period of November 14-21. It is too early to tell whether the ceasefire will hold for very long, and if it does, whether its central provisions will be implemented.

For those who still remember the Israeli attack on Gaza four years ago and the slaughter of Palestinian civilians and the repeated violation of ceasefire agreement by the Israelis, the current ceasefire should hold no hope, especially as we have begun to notice similar patterns of violations taking place again. Looking back four years, to the end of ‘Cast Lead’ and since then and up to the beginning of last Israeli attack, 271 Palestinians, according to the Israeli human rights organization B’tselem, have been assassinated by Israeli air strikes, by drones, by planes, by helicopters and ZERO Israelis killed by Palestinian rockets.

Israel has already used excessive violence to disperse Palestinian civilians who gathered on the Gaza side of the border, with a few straying across into Israel, to celebrate what they thought was their new freedom now to venture close to the border. This so-called ‘no-go-area’ was decreed by Israel after its 2005 ‘disengagement’ had been a killing field where 213, including 17 children and 154 uninvolved, had lost their lives. Only in the last few days, Israeli security forces, after firing warning shots, killed one Palestinian civilian and wounded another 20 others with live ammunition. Despite this note of pessimism there are a number of fundamental differences between the situation in Gaza and Hamas fighters in Gaza in 2012 compared to 2008.

First, the change of dynamics resulting from the Arab Spring and change in Egypt. The two regional countries that the U.S. needs badly to act as interlocutors, and isolate Hamas — Turkey and Egypt — are arguably right now the closest and most important allies of Hamas. Israel is more isolated than Hamas and has fewer friends. Even the British Foreign secretary, who under normal circumstances is only good for rubber stamping whatever Israelis does, this time took a cautionary approach and did not offer any support for a ground invasion.

The fact that Israel cannot count on diplomatic support from U.S.-oriented regimes such as Mubarak of Egypt creates a new dynamic in the Middle East and puts far greater pressure on Israeli leaders to be more realistic in their approach to the peace process. This generates a better environment for a more realistic and pragmatic approach to finding a longer lasting, and more permanent peace in the Middle East.

The second difference in my assessment is Hamas’ acquisition of more sophisticated weapons dealt a serious blow to Israeli morale. These long-range missiles allowed Hezbollah in Lebanon during the 2006 Israeli war not only to secure itself against Israeli aggression, most importantly: it created a more symmetrical confrontation by taking the war into cities in the occupied territories that had been immune from any attack for a long time.

The attack on Tel Aviv soon after the first Israeli attack on Gaza in the latest war, not only was a shock to the political leadership in the Israeli government, it heralded a new chapter in the relation between the freedom fighters in Gaza and the Israeli occupying forces. These weapons turned the table of confrontation with Israel in favor of Gaza and made another Israeli victim feel bold enough, if not fully secure, to confront it with a real sting.

One does not need a complicated analysis to conclude that if the fighters in Gaza have gained access to missiles that can reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, then they must have acquired anti-tank weapons similar to those that were used by Hezbollah in 2006 with devastating consequences for the Israeli tank divisions and especially for Markova 4 tanks that the Israelis had invested so much in constructing an image of invincibility around it globally.

It became clear soon after the 2006 war with Lebanon that the Achilles heel of the Israelis was the fear factor that demoralized its population. The fact that, in 2012 as in 2006, it was Israel who proposed the truce, clearly indicate that for the military leaders in Israel, a scared population is not the same as the dead Gazans are for Hamas – scared populations would sap the shaky morale in Israel even further, while for the freedom fighters in Gaza, innocent civilian casualties energize them to go an extra-mile to avenge.

Like the 2006 war, the underdog, Hamas, comes out of this confrontation in much more favorable status than the Zionist regime in Tel Aviv. Despite all the military shields, Hamas was able, even in the last hours of the conflict, to attack Israel. This has certainly enhanced Hamas’s prestige among Palestinians and in the Arab world, and, in a ‘zero sum gain’ relationship, any gain of prestige by Hamas by necessity implies a loss for the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas. It will be more difficult than ever to bolster the Fatah leadership on the West Bank as Hamas grows in stature.

The third outcome of this war is political recognition given to Hamas leadership by a number of Arab leaders. During the attacks several leading foreign ministers from the region visited Gaza and were received by the Hamas governing authorities, thus undermining the Israeli policy of isolating Hamas and excluding it from participation in diplomacy affecting the Palestinian people. As Richard Falk has stated:

. . . throughout this just concluded feverish effort to establish a ceasefire, Hamas was treated as if ‘a political actor’ with sovereign authority to speak on behalf of the people living in Gaza. Such a move represents a potential sea change, depending on whether there is an effort to build on the momentum achieved or a return to the futile and embittering Israeli/U.S. policy of excluding Hamas from diplomatic channels by insisting that no contact with a terrorist organization is permissible or politically acceptable.

The most important outcome of the latest attack has been the strengthening of the argument that the existence of more parity in the region would undermine the hawkish and belligerent Israeli position that so far, with the overt and covert support of the US, has not agreed to implement any treaties agreed upon in the previous negotiations and by implication would lead to a softening of such a position making a long term resolution of this conflict more likely. I hope this realization would lead to less saber rattling about attacking Iran.

Like Hezbollah in 2006, Hamas has punched a big hole in Israel’s overinflated air ego balloon sending the military leaders to the drawing board. This may be an opportune moment for the peace lovers in the region to become more active. They may be able to prevent this carnage from being repeated again.

Ibrahim Kazerooni, originally from Iraq, is finishing a joint Ph.D. program at the Iliff School of Theology and the University of Denver’s Korbel School of International Studies in Denver. More of his work can be found at the Imam Ibrahim Kazerooni Blog.

Letters to the Editor: Readers Respond to Donald Kaul’s Departure, Part IV

As Donald Kaul explained in a column about how he had a heart attack on the Fourth of July, he’s either taking a break after half a century of writing hard-hitting, liberal, and humorous commentaries or he’s retired. Going through the height of election season without his razor-sharp insight has been hard for many of us who revere him. However, I wanted to take a moment to let OtherWords readers know that he’s still on the mend and weighing whether or not to return.

This is the fourth installment of a series of posts showcasing many of the moving letters Don received following that column and my own tribute. We received at least 200 emails and115 snail-mailed letters and cards between late July and mid-October. Please consider sending me a holiday greeting to forward to him at [email protected] or snail-mailing cards to OtherWords, 1112 16th Street, NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036. If you’re a devoted fan, you’ll want to read the first, second, and third of these posts if you missed them over the summer.
—Emily Schwartz Greco is the managing editor of OtherWords, a non-profit editorial service run by the Institute for Policy Studies.

Say it ain’t so! With Molly Ivins dead, and you retiring, I may have to move to Mexico. I hope your heart heals, and you put your head back to work for us. Thanks for the great work so far.
—Kim Stanley, McPherson, Kansas

I will miss your columns. Have felt we were on the same page for years. I was very surprised to hear of your heart attack. I, too, experienced heart problems. I am lucky to be alive, and I sure hope you are doing better. Suddenly for both of us, the things that seemed to matter are put in perspective. We, too, feel as you do about the political scene. Will miss your take on it all, but understand you situation. Live life for whatever time we have left.
—Mary Anne Frey

I’m glad you’re feeling better. Being in Arizona doesn’t allow those of us who don’t subscribe to the neoconservative and right-wing driven news much journalistic choice, other than what we seek out ourselves. So what I’m hoping is your complete recovery and return to what you do extremely well. Thank you.
—Luis J. Rodriguez

As a teenager growing up in Iowa, reading your articles in the Des Moines Register was a highlight for me in the 70’s. While I never went into journalism, or even had the opportunity to write much, I always admired the literary profession, and the way a well-crafted article could inspire. Your articles seemed to exude such common sense and were written in a way that no one else could. As a bartender at “Aunt Maude’s” in Ames in the Fall of ’83, it was a thrill the day you sat across from me and ordered a drink. I wanted to be so suave, but ended up breaking a glass right over the ice chest, and spent several minutes emptying and replacing the ice when I could have possibly been exchanging witty repertoire with you instead. Alas. Thanks for all the great stories.
—Steve Danielson

Your comments about having a heart attack are apt. As a retired physician I particularly appreciated your description, “…like being sent through a cardiac car wash.” I hope your post-procedure recovery is progressing well and you are adjusting to the new situation.
—Robert J. (Bob) McElroy, MD, Traverse City, Michigan

I have very fond memories of reading your columns with my mother when I was growing up. Not getting to read them will be like losing my mother again.
—Marilu Goodyear

Donald Kaul Signs Off, an OtherWords cartoon by Khalil Bendib

Donald Kaul Signs Off, an OtherWords cartoon by Khalil Bendib

I was so happy to hear you survived your heart attack but I was so sorry that you stopped writing your column. Here in Southwest Missouri, yours is a voice we don’t hear often enough. There are so many true believers (think Todd Akin types) that I always looked forward to reading what you had to say. It was an oasis, a respite from the conservative prattle and overblown importance of the George Wills. I understand your reluctance to spend your hours shouting in the wilderness, but it is lonelier out here without you.
—Elaine Atkinson

You’re my favorite Pulitzer-prize-losing journalist. You’ve done so much already, it’s not a matter of owing anyone. It doesn’t have to be at the pace you’ve been doing it but as much as you see fit. You do make a difference. I hope you are feeling better.
— Christmas Carol Halitsky

Dear Mr. Kaul, or may I call you Don? I have only been reading your columns for the last 40 years. I find myself quoting you from time to time. I’ll tell people that my dad always said two things: “That’s how they get you.” And “They’re all in it together.” But it actually was your dad, not mine, of course.
—Allan Shickman

Your ideas were the subject of discussion at our college booster picnic tonight. Most of us are in our 60s and grew up in your America. We don’t know where that America went. (We pay attention to issues, are involved in local government and vote). We don’t know how our representatives and governor took the politics sideways at the state and federal levels and we can’t believe what they are doing. One man at the table said “I don’t think I want to live here anymore.” Another said “We do not have any rational voter choices.” I’m hoping that you will continue to write, to help Your America understand exactly what is happening and if possible, how to stop it. We’re out here but we feel isolated and alone.
—Kathie Rogers, Pretty Prairie, Kansas

Terribly sorry to hear you suffered a heart attack. I remember when you were great five days a week (an impossibility), and you’re still damned good today. Hope you get back to writing. In any case, you picked the right half century to be a journalist. I used to say that things were always falling apart but never got much worse. Today they get worse. The only explanation is that God, the Great Developer, underbid on the Earth contract and had to cut corners. Mary’s two sons and two of their sons rode in RAGBRAI this year. You and Karras will go to heaven just for starting it. Anyway, good luck and good health.
—Pat Lackey

I was sorry to read of your heart attack in The Progressive Populist. If you’ll keep writing, I’ll keep enjoying your articles, rants and insights. My counsel? Do what gives you pleasure and satisfaction. Don’t, however, expect our population to get any smarter. Nixon: twice. Reagan: twice. Dubya: Need I say it?
—David Gordon

As a kid, I remember my mom and dad agreeing with and chuckling about what you’d written in your Over the Coffee column. My husband and I would do the same with your contribution in the Des Moines Register. Love love love your writing and you are greatly missed! Best wishes on a speedy recovery.
—Rose Brandsgard

I’ve been reading your commentary in the Hanover, Pennsylvania Evening Sun for a while now, and I’ve come to really appreciate your good sense and humor. I hope we’ll see articles from you again sometime in the near future.
—John Nischwitz, Littlestown, Pennsylvania

As one of the very few left-leaning people in Southwest Missouri, I certainly appreciate your columns. I know you will have to do what is best for your family and your own health, but I want you to know that I will really miss hearing your reasonable voice in the wilderness in which I live.
—Deborah Davis, Springfield, Missouri

Over the years I have really enjoyed your well written columns, sometimes funny, sometimes so close to my feelings that it scares me. I hope you have a full recovery and will be back to writing soon. We need writers like you who will tell it like it is and keep the truth in politics. It is sad how the civility of today has changed. I am 80 years young and I have never heard politicians speak so harsh about each other. Take care of your health and I hope to be reading you again in the near future.
—Juanita Jansen, Rogersville, Missouri

Thank you, Donald Kaul, for your previous columns. They mix serious and humorous views, like a living Will Rogers. Take time out to heal your broken heart, but please write more some day! Appeal to OtherWords: please offer Kaul the option of writing without deadlines, whenever he chooses.
—Martha E. Martin

Theft Is Not the Only Threat Militants Pose to Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons

Earlier this month the Stimson Center issued a report by George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace titled The Non-Unitary Model and Deterrence Stability in South Asia. The daunting title notwithstanding, the paper is not only readable for the general reader, but spellbinding for nuclear-weapons specialists. Hint: “non-unitary” in this context means a nation which fails to demonstrate a “tight, coherent line of authority” over hostilities emanating from that state — in this instance, Pakistan. Though I haven’t quite finished reading the 22-page report, the excitement it generates has spurred me to get a jump start on posting about it.

To being with, it’s doubtful that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are at serious risk of being purloined by Islamist extremist militants. At this time, the greater nuclear risk to which it’s subject, as Perkovich sees it, is the confusion that India experiences when, for example, its parliament was attacked in New Delhi in 2001 and during the Mumbai 2008 assault. Thus the nuclear deterrence model, which, according to conventional thinking [this author, for one, has his reservations], worked for the United States and Russia may not be universally applicable. Why not? Perkovich writes:

… when it comes to functions as portentous and centrally controlled as initiating and managing warfare between nuclear-armed states, it is generally assumed that a tight, coherent line of authority operates approximately in ways consistent with the unitary model. If a state is not functioning as a unitary actor, or claims not to be when it is convenient, or is not perceived to be by those who seek to deter it, the implications for deterrence stability are profound.

Specifically …

When India is attacked by actors [Islamic extremists militants] emanating from Pakistan and with ties to Pakistani intelligence services, it naturally infers that such actions represent the intentions and policies of Pakistani authorities.

The result:

The projection of violence from Pakistan [by non-state actors] into India means that deterrence (through non-nuclear means as well as nuclear) has failed to prevent aggression. The task then remains for India to threaten or undertake punishment to compel Pakistan to redress the offense and to deter Pakistan from repeating it and from escalating the conflict. If Pakistan does not [seek] to detain and prosecute the perpetrators … pressure mounts for India to demonstrate through force that it will not be deterred from escalating the conflict in self-defense.

Perkovich then provides an example of the confusion that can ensue from attacks by Pakistani non-state actors on India.

For example, while India could perceive that the terrorist attacks it attributes to Pakistan signal Pakistani aggressiveness, Pakistani leaders (and the public) [Subtle point alert! — RW] could perceive the initial terrorist attacks as a signal that the Pakistani state does not seek a wider conflict but is merely signaling resolve to press India to make political accommodations, in Kashmir or more broadly.

Trickier still …

This signaling process becomes all the more difficult and precarious if the Pakistani leaders who are presumed to be the authors of Pakistan’s signals and actions deny that the perpetrators of the conflict-triggering violence actually do manifest the policies of the state.

Why? Because …

Indian leaders then face a highly unstable dilemma. They could act as if the initial violence reflects the intentions of Pakistan’s chain of command, and send countervailing signals of retaliatory action according to normal models of deterrence, in which greater credibility and righteousness tend to reside with the defender.

This might only confuse Pakistan though. Perkovich explains.

But if Pakistani leaders [themselves] believe or claim that the perpetrators were not carrying out state policies, and India does escalate, Pakistani leaders will feel that India is the aggressor, significantly changing the dynamics of crisis and deterrence stability. “Normal” models of deterrence do not hold in such a situation.

In the end …

… disunity produces dangerous confusion and ambiguity that interfere in the management of deterrence. Who is sending signals through violence that is perceived to be emanating from the state and/or its territory? What is being signaled? … how does one manage deterrence and escalation processes in such a situation? In this latter scenario, disunity erodes the rationality on which deterrence is predicated.

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